When Will Philadelphia See Its First Snowflakes of 2026? Here’s What the Data Shows

Well, we FINALLY saw a real winter filled with snow last year (2025-26). But what does that mean for this winter 2026-27? We may not know exactly how much snow we’ll see. But we can start with the question: when will we see our first snowfall of the year?

We did some analysis to figure out when we may see our first snowflakes in South Jersey and Philadelphia for the winter of 2026-27.

Philadelphia’s First Snowfall Could be Less Than 30 Days Away

Yes, you read that correctly. As the calendar turns to October, it’s worth a reminder: it could (technically) snow this month. It HAS snowed in the month of October before. So why not this year?
READ MORE: The Old Farmer's Almanac Has Thoughts on New Jersey's Winter 2026 Snow Potential

Let’s see if we can figure that out. When is it most likely?

Well, I dug in to see when we’ll see the FIRST flakes this year. I figured that past history could be our best indicator for the future, right? So utilizing data that’s publicly available from the National Weather Service, I analyzed the earliest date of each winter that Philadelphia saw at least a trace of snowfall.

So let’s look back 18 years and see what happens.

What’s The Average Date of the First Snowfall in Philadelphia, PA Each Winter

We made a list of the first date of the year that we saw snowfall.

Here’s what we came up with for the past 18 years:

Winter of 2025-2026 - First Snowfall: November 18, 2025
Winter of 2024-2025 - First Snowfall: November 22, 2024
Winter of 2023-2024 - First Snowfall: November 28, 2023

Winter of 2022-2023 - First Snowfall: October 17, 2022
Winter of 2021-2022 - First Snowfall: December 27, 2021
Winter of 2020-2021 - First Snowfall: December 9, 2020

Winter of 2019-2020 - First Snowfall: November 12, 2019
Winter of 2018-2019 - First Snowfall: November 15, 2018
Winter of 2017-2018 - First Snowfall: December 9, 2017

Winter of 2016-2017 - First Snowfall: November 20, 2016
Winter of 2015-2016 - First Snowfall: January 12, 2016
Winter of 2014-2015 - First Snowfall: November 13, 2014

Winter of 2013-2014 - First Snowfall: November 12, 2013
Winter of 2012-2013 - First Snowfall: November 7, 2012
Winter of 2011-2012 - First Snowfall: October 29, 2011

Winter of 2010-2011 - First Snowfall: November 25, 2010
Winter of 2009-2010 - First Snowfall: December 5, 2009
Winter of 2008-2009 - First Snowfall: November 18, 2008

So what does that all total out to?

It becomes:

October: 2 times
November: 11 times
December: 4 times
January: 1 time

So if you’re hoping for an October snowstorm, you may want to keep dreaming. However, analyzing this data has shown that the average first snowfall date in Philly is November 23rd. If it’s an average winter, that means we’re just 54 days away from snowflakes in the sky.

Are you ready for it?